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Single Moving Average
Test Results - Test 4


Testing Results
I have tested many different single moving averages and methods to use them. The following test is not designed to be traded - it is a system designed to help give us an insight in to the moving average. I have found that most moving averages tend to show similar results in testing and as such have chosen the thirty day moving average as it is commonly used and discussed..

Testing Results - Cross of A Rising Single Moving Average with an ATR Exit
This test is designed in an attempt to test the moving average in more of a trending situation, that is the moving average had risen to the point of the crossover. This means that there is more likelihood of trading in the direction of the major trend. Again this is not designed to be traded. The ATR Stop on this actually produced worse reults in the system test, than using no stop loss. I feel this confirms my belief in the need for an integrated system and that sometimes a stop in an un-integrated system can actually produce worse results than if no stop is used. I am not syaing not to use Stop loss techniques. They do work and I believe are necessary, especially when trading with technical analysis.

Test - Cross of Rising Moving Average. ATR Stop

Buy Signal * Cross of the price above the 30 period moving average (Daily) * Yesterdays high less than the 30 Period Average * 30 Day Average Higher than it was 15 days ago * Enter on the next mornings open if the open is above the moving average

Sell Signal * Cross of the close below the 30 period moving average (Daily) * Yesterdays Close Higher than the 30 Period Average * Exit on the next mornings open
Stop Loss / Position Size * 3 x 21 Day ATR Exit used
System Parameters Start Capital $50,000 Max Risk (if applicable) 2% Periods Tested 1000 Maximum Position Size 20% Maximum # Of Positions 5
Cross Rising Moving Average Test with ATR Stop TEST Cross Close & 30 Day Average (Basket Test) 1000 Periods Trade Statistics Trades Processed: 960 Trades Taken: 960 Trades Rejected: 0 Winning Trades: 321 (33.44%) Losing Trades: 639 (66.56%) Largest Winning Trade: $16914.73 Largest Losing Trade: -$1,944.37 Average Winning Trade: $566.73 Average Losing Trade: -$255.68 Average Win/Average Loss: 2.2166 TEST Cross Close & Rising 30 Day Average – ATR Stop. (Simulation Result – Results Varied Greatly) 1000 Periods Trade Summary Earliest Entry Date: 19-11-00 Latest Exit Date: 24-09-04 Total Trading duration: 1402 days Profit Summary Profit Status: LOSS Starting Capital: $50,000.00 Finishing Capital: $44,273.20 Total Net Profit: $-$5,726.80 (-11.45%) Total Transaction Cost: $11,930.10 Annualized Comp. Interest: -3.1173% Trade Statistics Trades Processed: 960 Trades Taken: 299 Trades Rejected: 177 Winning Trades: 101 (33.78%) Losing Trades: 198 (66.22%) Largest Winning Trade: $6,659.10 Largest Losing Trade: -$1,399.16 Average Winning Trade: $504.47 Average Losing Trade: -$286.25 Average Win/Average Loss: 1.7623 Trade Duration Statistics Average Days in All Trades: 19 Average Days in Winning Trades: 35 Average Days in Losing Trades: 11 Consecutive Trade Statistics Maximum consecutive winning trades: 7 Maximum consecutive losing trades: 21 Relative Drawdown Maximum Dollar Drawdown: $3,684.84 Maximum Percentage Drawdown: 9.564%

Example Of Profit Line With This Signal. Note The Huge Variation in Success